Probing the Neurological Basis of Prospect Theory (2013) | ||
Behaviors
in the lab are different from behaviors in vivo in the real world.
This is especially true, for instance, in financial economic
decision-making.
In classical financial decision theory, assets have an intrinsic
price based on its future cash flows.
Discounting
back to the present day provides an absolutely certain quantifiable and
objective value and price.
Correct prices differ from incorrect prices as clearly as night and
day.
Except there is one inconvenient fact immortalized by John Maynard
Keynes - "...the market can remain irrational for longer than you or
I can remain solvent."
In real markets, if everyone else is wrong, it means only you are. Behavioral
economics
provides a patch to classical utility maximization theory.
They explicitly include modulatory emotions that warp the expected
utility curve to suit an individual's perspective prospects, as in Prospect
Theory.
By using a non-linear curve and emotional based theories such as
loss aversion, they can model potential gains differently from potential
losses more like a human would perceive them and less like an economic
automaton might.
It can describe realistic behavior that results in suboptimal pure
performance.
But what does it mean? Prospect Theory and Behavioral Economics as
summarized in the Chartered Financial Analyst program cover the empirical
phenomenon but (wisely perhaps) leave out the mechanism. It is merely
something to either guard against or to exploit in others. Combining
these research findings with artificial intelligence or computer
engineering - as would be appropriate, say, to create a script, an
objective decision process, or even a semi-autonomous decision support
system - would again lead to a disavowal of the emotional bias phenomenons.
Engineers can build the Prospect Theory biases in if desired, but who
wants a decision maker or decision making aid beset by a pique of greed or
fear or jealousy? Again, this combination leads to a disavowal of the
phenomenon, more as something that afflicts the other party and therefore
creates an opportunity for the pure, unbiased autumaton performer. Combining
these research findings with neuroscience, as is occuring more frequently
in the past decade, identifies the amgydala
and insula as the neural correlates of Prospect Theory and emotional
biases. Subjects with these areas intact see them activate when presented
with choices and making decisions consistent with Prospect Theory
predictions. Subjects with these areas otherwise deactivated depart from
Prospect Theory and decide more similarly to Utility Theory. This evidence
supports the intuitive claim that the emotional centers are involved when
emotions bias decision-making. But what does it mean? The
amgydala and insula are parts of the limbic system, or the "old"
and "reptilian" portions of the brain. Have humans perhaps
evolved past the need for such components? Are these "old" and
perhaps obsolete portions holding human decision making back from its pure
capability? Should decision makers have these parts at least temporarily
deactivated for their work? Would this be ethical, as doping and athletic
performance enhancers for sports stars are unethical and illegal? Perhaps
to answer these questions one must be less wise and go beyond describing the phenomenon and attempt to explain the mechanism.
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